Really great post Brian! A few thoughts come up as I read through it:
If so many societies will be struggling with aging populations and the inflationary consequences, could there be greater competition to attract younger working age talent to the affected economies? Seems to go against the trend of anti-immigration movements, and could also be counter to the likely growing trend of climate-related migration, though the latter could be a catalyst to encourage the pursuit of superior economic opportunities.
The other thought I had was whether the growing proximity of older populations to wildlife, which will likely continue to see its habitat shrink, could create 2020-like virus outbreaks and pandemics, which could rebalance the demographic picture. It is not clear that future pandemics would be more lethal to older populations, like in 1918 (I think). Climate change could also have a direct impact on this, with vector-borne diseases and heat-related deaths set to become more prevalent in higher latitudes.
I know this post is about the demographic factor, not technology, but it is impossible to think about productivity and inflation in the long term without considering the effect that the proliferation of AI will have on price dynamics. A shrinking working age population could still prove to be 5-10x more productive than your average worker in the age of ChatGPT and widespread plug-ins, as well as increased automation in manufacturing. A single worker armed with AI tools, could be as productive as an entire office, in theory. That could greatly offset tightness in the labor market and still generate enough growth to overcome the growing old age dependency ratio.
Really great post Brian! A few thoughts come up as I read through it:
If so many societies will be struggling with aging populations and the inflationary consequences, could there be greater competition to attract younger working age talent to the affected economies? Seems to go against the trend of anti-immigration movements, and could also be counter to the likely growing trend of climate-related migration, though the latter could be a catalyst to encourage the pursuit of superior economic opportunities.
The other thought I had was whether the growing proximity of older populations to wildlife, which will likely continue to see its habitat shrink, could create 2020-like virus outbreaks and pandemics, which could rebalance the demographic picture. It is not clear that future pandemics would be more lethal to older populations, like in 1918 (I think). Climate change could also have a direct impact on this, with vector-borne diseases and heat-related deaths set to become more prevalent in higher latitudes.
I know this post is about the demographic factor, not technology, but it is impossible to think about productivity and inflation in the long term without considering the effect that the proliferation of AI will have on price dynamics. A shrinking working age population could still prove to be 5-10x more productive than your average worker in the age of ChatGPT and widespread plug-ins, as well as increased automation in manufacturing. A single worker armed with AI tools, could be as productive as an entire office, in theory. That could greatly offset tightness in the labor market and still generate enough growth to overcome the growing old age dependency ratio.