Perspective on Risk - Feb. 15, 2024 (Andy Reid Got Lucky; 3 Pointers Have A Dispremium Now)
Back from Costa Rica. Nice country, nice people.
Andy Reid Got Lucky
Bad decisions cumulate. According to analysis by Kevin Cole, using the nflfastR model, Andy Reid’s decisions to punt reduced the Chief’s probability of winning by 10%.
Here are four decisions he made that lost expected value
Sharpe Ratios Change As Markets Become More Efficient
Sports deflation: Study shows NBA 3-point shot has lost its value (Phys.org)
A recent study by Falk College of Sport and Human Dynamics sport analytics professor Shane Sanders and associate professor Justin Ehrlich shows that while the number of 3-point shots continues to increase, the average expected value of 3-pointers has become less than 2-pointers since the 2017-18 season.
When taking fouled shots and made free throws into consideration, we found that what had long been a premium for the 3-point shot started to become a dispremium in the 2017-18 season and that trend is continuing,
Shot selection efficiency is found to be a “moneyball” or supra-payroll source of wins in the NBA. Lastly, we use Continuous True Shot Charts to find that there has been a widening NBA three-point dispremium since 2018-19. This dispremium result is not available if one aggregates from traditional shot charts, which do not consider shot-pursuant FT scoring. Continuous True Shot Charts are both novel and meaningful in basketball league settings.