Perspective on Risk - Nov. 29, 2024 (Global Trends 2040)
TL;DR; Background; What Did They Predict About 2025 (in 2008); What Does Global Trends 2040 Predict
TL;DR
The Global Trends reports produced by the National Intelligence Council are consistently insightful. Seven have been produced since 1997.
The Global Trends 2025 report (published in 2008) can be seen as a "tipping point" in the series when compared to the preceding and subsequent reports.
The 2025 report places a strong emphasis on the emergence of a multipolar world, in which power is more evenly distributed among a number of states. This contrasts with the earlier reports, which focused more on the US as the dominant power.
The 2025 report is also notable for its focus on the growing scarcity of resources, such as energy, food, and water. The 2025 report identifies a number of new security challenges, such as the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and the potential for conflict over resources.
Global Trends 2040 predicts that major structural forces around demographics, environment, economics and technology will reshape the global landscape. The world faces growing disequilibrium between public demands and governments' abilities to deliver. The international order will become more competitive and volatile as power diffuses across state and non-state actors.
Background
One of the consistently most insightful documents to understand how the future will evolve is the Global Trends reports produced by the National Intelligence Council. These reports bring together the capabilities of numerous government and non-government personnel and agencies to assess “over the horizon” developments and risks. The last report, Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World, was produced in 2021. Reports have been issued roughly every five years since 1997. Here is a link to all of the reports.
Some of you I’m sure will remember the 11x17 papers I carried around that mapped out the observations from the reports over the years to identify and understand trends. I’ve actually morphed a version of it to a spreadsheet. Feel free to access it.
As but one example of the reports foresight, they highlighted in 2008 that the emergence of a global pandemic remains a serious risk that could cause massive disruption. It certainly did.
I thought it would be interesting to 1) review what the reports have predicted for 2025 & 2030, and 2) look at the 2040 report and the whole sequence of reports to look “over the horizon” ourselves.
As a frame of reference, I look at four Fundamental Structural Forces (Power Dynamics, Technology, Demographics & Climate Change), four Major Systems Impact (Economic Issues, Globalization, Global Governance, and the Role of the US and other State and Non-State Actors). There are also some tertiary areas that come into play on individual reports.
What Did They Predict About 2025 (in 2008)
The Global Trends 2025 report (published in 2008) can be seen as a "tipping point" in the series when compared to the preceding and subsequent reports. The 2025 report marks a noticeable shift in tone from the earlier reports (2015 and 2020), which were more optimistic about the future. The 2025 report is more cautious, highlighting the potential for major disruptions and discontinuities.
The report projects major transformative changes in the global system by 2025, with a shift from US dominance to a multipolar world. It anticipates greater complexity and potential for conflict amid resource constraints, demographic shifts, and the rise of new powers. While the report sees continued globalization and technological advancement, it warns of increased competition, resource scarcity, and potential disruptions from climate change, terrorism, and health crises.
Structural Forces
Power Dynamics
The GT2025 Report predicts that the international system will shift dramatically from US unipolarity to a complex multipolar order. The relative power of non-state actors will increase while traditional Western dominance declines. China and India will rise as major powers, though the US will remain the single most powerful actor. This multipolar system may be more unstable than the previous order, with increased competition among major powers.
The GT2030 report projects a further dramatic shift in global power from West to East, with Asia surpassing North America and Europe combined in economic power, military spending, and technological investment by 2030. No single country will be hegemonic. Power will become more diffuse, shifting toward networks and coalitions in a multipolar world.
They seem to have gotten this pretty correct.
Technology
The GT2025 and GT2030 reports predictions here were pretty anodyne. It is not until GT2035, written in 2017, that the discussion of technological change becomes more strategically important.
In the GT2035 report, technological change is described as a key driver accelerating the pace of change across all domains, noting it raises risks and disruptions. The report emphasizes technology's role in changing the nature of work, warfare, and social interaction. However, it notes technology could exacerbate divisions between winners and losers in the global economy.
GT2040 notes for the first time that technology leadership will be crucial for geopolitical advantage.
If anything, they are somewhat late to understand the full transformative power of recent technological change.
Demographics
GT2025 tells us that the world will face significant demographic shifts, including aging populations in developed countries and China, continued youth bulges in developing regions, increased urbanization, and greater migration flows. These trends will have major economic and political implications, affecting everything from economic growth to social stability.
The key word here is “will.” It is still anticipatory.
By GT2030, we “are” amidst the demographic shift. Major demographic shifts are reshaping the global landscape. Developed countries face aging populations while developing regions, particularly Africa and South Asia, have growing youth populations. Urbanization continues worldwide with associated infrastructure and governance challenges.
The Global Trends reports discuss in GT2020 (written in 2004) and GT2025 that migration pressures are “expected” to increase. By GT2030 and GT2036, they acknowledge that migration pressures “are” increasing due to demographic imbalances combined with economic and environmental stresses.
Climate Change
In GT2025 they state that climate change could act as a threat multiplier, exacerbating resource competition and state fragility. By 2036, the reports suggest that climate change will be a major driver of instability through impacts on food, water, health, and human migration, causing humanitarian crises and straining governance systems.
Major Systems Impact
Economic Issues
The GT2020 report predicted continued global economic growth but with uneven distribution. However, it warns of potential financial instability and growing economic disparities. By the writing of GT2025 they had shifted their emphasis significantly, noting that a historic transfer of wealth from West to East will continue, and that state capitalism may challenge market democracy as a development model. They further predicted that the international financial system may fragment into regional blocs. The GT2030 report is similar.
However, for GT2035 they suggest that the global economy faces significant transitions and potential instability. Slower growth in major economies, rising inequality, and technological disruption of labor markets create policy challenges. The report highlights risks to globalization and international economic cooperation. Developing countries face particular challenges in achieving growth that can absorb growing workforces.
Globalization
The discussion of globalization has been among the more fascinating over time. When writing GT2015 in 2000, they viewed an acceleration of globalization by 2020. By the writing of GT2020, globalization was the “mega-trend” that would shape the world.
By 2008, when writing GT2025, they already projected some cracks, noting that while globalization continues to be a defining force, it faces challenges from resource constraints, protectionist pressures, and potential fragmentation of the international system. The process may slow or experience disruptions but is unlikely to be reversed. Regional trading blocs may emerge, and alternative models of development may challenge Western economic liberalism.
By 2012, and the writing of GT2030, the future of globalization was already uncertain. And looking forward, the GT2040 report, written in 2021, foresees globalization becoming more fragmented and regionalized with information flows may split into separate cyber-sovereign spaces and trade and technology developing along competing US and Chinese-led systems.
Governance
The reports have under-estimated the governance challenges. For GT2030, the main concern was that traditional multilateral institutions will need reform and that governance needed to include more stakeholders. GT2036 and GT2040 seem to better fit current conditions, noting strains on both democratic and authoritarian systems. Both governments face growing challenges in meeting public expectations amid complex transnational challenges. Many governments will struggle with mounting pressures and declining public trust. Democracy faces challenges from polarization and authoritarianism. Alternative governance providers may emerge. Adaptation and innovation in governance will be crucial but difficult. The mismatch between public demands and state capacity may drive instability.
Not pretty, but probably close to the truth.
Role of the US and other State and Non-State Actors
From the first report through the GT2025 report the statement recurs that the US is expected to remain the single most powerful actor across all dimensions (military, economic, technological).
However, looking at GT2030, written in 2012, the language changed. They foresee that the US will likely remain "first among equals" due to its comprehensive power, but its relative economic and military dominance will decline.
The subsequent reports indicates uncertainty about the future of US global leadership and commitment to international engagement, and that by 2040, while remaining powerful, the US will face greater constraints and competition, particularly from China. US technological and alliance advantages will be challenged.
By 2040, China is projected to be the primary challenger to US influence, though still facing domestic challenges. India, Russia, and other regional powers will seek greater roles. Large corporations, NGOs, cities and other non-state actors will increasingly shape outcomes alongside traditional state powers. Their influence may both complement and compete with state authority.
Tertiary Observations
Up until GT2020, major power warfare was seen as unlikely. That language began to change with their predictions for 2025 and subsequent years. These reports suggest interstate conflict risks could rise due to power shifts, resource competition, technological changes and lessened constraints.
The GT2036 report notes that the nature of conflict is evolving with new technologies and actors. The report describes future conflicts as more diffuse, diverse, and disruptive. The line between war and peace is blurring through "gray zone" activities. Both state and non-state actors gain access to more lethal and disruptive capabilities, while conflict increasingly targets societies rather than just military forces. This has probably already happened, but is likely to continue and expand.
What Does Global Trends 2040 Predict
This was written in 2021.
The report envisions a more contested, fragmented and turbulent world through 2040. Major structural forces around demographics, environment, economics and technology will reshape the global landscape. The world faces growing disequilibrium between public demands and governments' abilities to deliver. The international order will become more competitive and volatile as power diffuses across state and non-state actors.
The report projects a continued shift toward a multipolar system with no single dominant power. While the US-China rivalry will be central, power will diffuse across a broader range of state and non-state actors. Traditional military and economic power will be complemented by growing technological, network and information power. Regional powers and non-state actors will have more influence within their spheres.
Emerging technologies like AI, biotechnology, quantum computing and 5G will transform societies and power dynamics. Technology leadership will be crucial for geopolitical advantage. The pace of change will accelerate, bringing both opportunities and disruptions. Key concerns include cyber threats, digital repression, and technology divides between leaders and laggards.
Global population growth will slow but diverge regionally. Advanced economies will age while developing regions remain younger. Migration pressures will increase. Urbanization will accelerate, especially in Africa and Asia. These shifts will create varying economic and social pressures across regions.
The physical effects of climate change will intensify through 2040, bringing more extreme weather, resource stress, and adaptation challenges. Impacts will fall disproportionately on developing regions. Climate action may increase but likely remain insufficient to meet Paris goals. Climate could drive both conflict and cooperation.
Rising national debt, slower growth, and employment disruption from automation are key concerns. Economic weight will continue shifting toward Asia. Trade may fragment into competing blocs. Inequality within and between countries may increase. Financial crises and technological disruption pose additional risks.
The report sees globalization evolving rather than reversing, but becoming more fragmented and regionalized. Supply chains may shift and diversify. Information flows may split into separate cyber-sovereign spaces. Trade and technology could develop along competing US and Chinese-led systems. However, transnational challenges will require continued global cooperation.
Many governments will struggle with mounting pressures and declining public trust. Democracy faces challenges from polarization and authoritarianism. Alternative governance providers may emerge. Adaptation and innovation in governance will be crucial but difficult. The mismatch between public demands and state capacity may drive instability.
While remaining powerful, the US will face greater constraints and competition, particularly from China. US technological and alliance advantages will be challenged. The report suggests the US must adapt to a more multipolar world while working to preserve democratic values and international rules. Success may depend on domestic cohesion and ability to work with allies.
China is projected to be the primary challenger to US influence, though still facing domestic challenges. India, Russia, and other regional powers will seek greater roles. Large corporations, NGOs, cities and other non-state actors will increasingly shape outcomes alongside traditional state powers. Their influence may both complement and compete with state authority.
Competition over resources including water, food, and strategic minerals will intensify. Energy transitions away from fossil fuels will reshape geopolitics and economics. Access to critical resources may drive new tensions. Technology and efficiency gains provide some solutions but distribution remains challenging.
Interstate conflict risks may rise due to power shifts, technology change, and weakening constraints. While major war remains unlikely, limited conflicts could increase. New domains like cyber and space add complexity. Internal conflicts may grow from state fragility and societal divisions. Conflict prevention institutions may weaken.
The report projects terrorism remaining a persistent threat, with both jihadist groups and domestic extremists active. New technologies may enable more sophisticated attacks. State fragility and ideological extremism will provide continued enabling conditions. However, counterterrorism cooperation may decrease amid great power competition.
The report notes ongoing health challenges from both communicable and non-communicable diseases. Health system strains will grow with aging populations. Biotechnology advances offer solutions but also risks. Pandemic preparedness remains crucial. Health inequalities between developed and developing regions may persist or widen.